The ‘Year of Elections’ and economic predictions: Cutting through the noise

Steven Bell, Chief Economist at Columbia Threadneedle

Join us on Tuesday 9th of July at 9:30am, via Zoom, for an in-depth discussion on the 2024 elections, inflation, interest rates, financial markets and key considerations for your investment strategy.

Why 2024 is a pivotal year?

2024 is not just any election year – it’s the election year. With over 64 countries (plus the European Union) gearing up for national elections, representing nearly half the world’s population, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The results of these elections are likely to shape the future significantly. How does this impact you, and what key considerations should you take into account?

Economic shifts and uncertainty

From December 2021, the UK alone has seen a 21-fold increase in the Bank of England Base Rate (from 0.25 per cent to 5.25 per cent) over the course of 14 rate hike decisions made by the central bank. This period has also seen significant changes in monetary policy worldwide, creating uncertainty for many investors. The UK, after experiencing sub-1 per cent base rates for nearly 12 years, faces a shock to consumers and the economy due to the recent cycle of rate hikes.

Source: Bank of England

Global inflation and market impacts

Rampant Inflation caused by Covid stimulus programs, supply chain challenges and increasing energy prices from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has meant that in some parts of the world, such as the US, inflation remains unexpectedly high.

At the time of writing, there is a growing consensus in the US that there may be a rate hikein 2024. This prompts questions about global economic changes and what should be considered for investment strategies to achieve positive outcomes.

Investment strategy considerations

  • Growth vs. value assets: Growth assets historically have not fared as well as value-style assets in years of higher inflation and interest rates.
  • Market concentration: The past decade has seen a significant concentration of markets towards the largest companies in the world, creating a reliance on their performance for strong returns in passive-style investing.

Key questions

  • Are ‘old economy’ stocks having a resurgence?
  • Will US tech stocks and the ‘Magnificent 7’ continue to provide positive returns?
  • Will interest rates fall and how will this impact investment markets?
  • How will the US, EU and UK economic backdrop, and elections, affect the landscape?

Join our webinar

To make sense of all these factors and hear from Steven alongside our experts, please join us on Tuesday 9th of July at 9:30am via Zoom.

Once registered, the team will be in touch to confirm your place and send joining instructions for the webinar ahead of the day.

We are really excited for this seminar and hope you can join us.

Best wishes,

Lewington Wealth Management 

The value of an investment with St. James’s Place will be directly linked to the performance of the funds you select and the value can therefore go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Lewington Wealth Management Limited is an Appointed Representative of and represents only St. James’s Place Wealth Management plc (which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) for the purpose of advising solely on the group’s wealth management products and services, more details of which are set out on the group’s website. The ‘St. James’s Place Partnership’ and the titles ‘Partner’ and ‘Partner Practice’ are marketing terms used to describe St. James’s Place representatives.

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