Electoral volatility continues unabated.
From a total of 54 recent by-elections, 24 (44 per cent) changed hands. While turnover of Labour seats was greatest, others were being exchanged elsewhere.
Labour faced 24 defences, losing half of them, including some where newly elected MPs had resigned as councillors.
In the run-up to the May general election, we highlighted the proportion of losses suffered by the Conservatives. Labour’s rate over the past month exceeds that.
Taking a broader perspective, Labour has defended 53 vacancies since its 2024 landslide, losing 23 (43 per cent) in the process.
After its 1997 victory, Blair’s Labour government defended 175 vacant seats (a May rather than July general election meant more vacancies) and lost only 37 of them – a rate half as big as Starmer’s government is suffering.
In this round of by-elections, four parties benefited, with the Conservatives winning eight wards.
One of those was Worthing’s Heene ward, albeit by a margin of only 38 votes, although last May saw Labour poll more than double the votes received by the Conservatives.
Other Conservative gains were assisted by the absence or intervention of candidates from other parties but mainly there was a straight switch from Labour to Conservative.
In both Swindon and South Ribble, there was a 23-point swing; and marginally smaller ones in North East Derbyshire and Monmouthshire.
The Greens, having taken seats off the Conservatives, are now successfully targeting Labour, assisted to a degree by the intervention of Reform UK candidates.
In Leeds, the Green vote in Farnley and Wortley rose from last May but Labour’s 23-point drop owes more to the fifth of voters who supported Reform.
More modest swings were in evidence when the Greens gained from Labour in Ashford, where the Independents did not contest but Reform did so.
Reform was rewarded when Labour’s vote in Wolverhampton’s Bilston North fell 46-points from last May; then, Labour’s only competition came from the Conservatives.
“The Greens are now successfully targeting Labour”
Anita Stanley, with more than a third of the votes, won the ward, which is located in the Wolverhampton South East parliamentary constituency where her party finished second in July.
The Liberal Democrats took just one seat from Labour. Southampton’s Shirley ward brought an 18-point swing between the two parties which might have been smaller if Reform had stood a candidate as it did in May.
However, an on-going battle for votes between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties saw three Conservative gains from its rival met with four seats transferring in the opposite direction.
Surrey saw the Conservatives recover Hersham Village ward in Elmbridge which had voted for the Liberal Democrats for the previous three elections.
This result was reversed in Surrey Heath, where Dave Hough for the Liberal Democrats polled 45 per cent of the vote in what had formerly been a ward that selected from Conservative or Labour candidates.
The Conservatives should be delighted to capture a Liberal Democrat seat in St Albans and another in Stockport, where the Bramhall South & Woodford ward was the only one of three Liberal Democrat defences to change hands.
By the same token, the Liberal Democrats successfully squeezed both of the main parties to win Ealing’s Hanger Hill; while in Westmoreland and Furness Council, the gain there may be explained by the absence of an Independent candidate and the large personal vote enjoyed by the previous Conservative incumbent.
A further Lib Dem gain – Bishops Waltham in Hampshire – reveals the difficulties facing the Conservatives as they seek to defend their county council seats won in 2021.
The Liberal Democrats captured the division with a 26-point swing against the Conservatives. This continuing threat, combined with much higher competition from Reform UK candidates, will present new Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch with an important test of her leadership.
In general, Independents lost ground, losing three seats to the Conservatives, but the Middleton Independents did retain their seat in Rochdale.
The Independent loss to Plaid Cymru in Powys was later counter-balanced when Plaid failed to retain Talybolian in Ynys Môn (Anglesey), after its councillor there became MP for the island. This sees the return of Independent Richard Hughes, defeated in 2022 but previously a long-standing councillor on Ynys Môn.
| By-elections | |
|---|---|
| Ashford, Aylesford & East Stour GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 0.6% over Lab Turnout 20.6% | |
| Bexley, Belvedere LAB HELD 6.7% over Con Turnout 18.5% | |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, Muscliff & Strouden Park CON GAIN FROM IND 24.7% over Lab Turnout 18.4% | |
| Calderdale, Calder LAB HELD 8.1% over Green Turnout 29.4% | |
| Ceredigion, Tirymynach LIB DEM HELD 76.2% over Reform Turnout 41.6% | |
| Charnwood, Sileby and Seagrave GREEN HELD 32.0% over Reform Turnout 18.8% | |
| Coventry, St. Michaels LAB HELD 31.3% over TUSC Turnout 11.1% | |
| Crawley, Northgate & West Green LAB HELD 11.6% over Con Turnout 23.4% | |
| Cumberland , Keswick LAB HELD 12.8% over Con Turnout 24.5% | |
| Cumberland, Wetheral CON HELD 15.7% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.2% | |
| Denbighshire, Prestatyn North CON GAIN FROM LAB 6.5% over Ind Turnout 24% | |
| Ealing, Hanger Hill LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 26.6% over Con Turnout 28.2% | |
| Ealing, Northolt Mandeville LAB HELD 15.7% over Con Turnout 21.4% | |
| Ealing, South Acton LAB HELD 36.7% over Con Turnout 17.3% | |
| East Lindsey, Croft CON HELD 27.9% over Skegness Urban District Society Turnout 22.4% | |
| Elmbridge, Hersham Village CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 15.8% over Lib Dem Turnout 27.1% | |
| Elmbridge, Weybridge St. Georges Hill CON HELD 0.8% over WSG Ind Turnout 19.7% | |
| Fylde, Warton CON GAIN FROM IND 18.7% over Ind Turnout 17.3% | |
| Gateshead, Whickham North LIB DEM HELD 44.2% over Lab Turnout 22.8% | |
| Greenwich, Eltham Town & Avery Hill CON GAIN FROM LAB 17.4% over Lab Turnout 28.0% | |
| Gwynedd, Llanberis PLAID CYMRU HELD 24.2% over Green Turnout 43.7% | |
| Hampshire, Bishops Waltham LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 18.4% over Con Turnout 28.9% | |
| Harlow, Little Parndon and Town Centre LAB HELD 27.9% over Con Turnout 19.0% | |
| Kirklees, Holme Valley South CON GAIN FROM LAB 12.1% over Lab Turnout 27.2% | |
| Leeds, Farnley and Wortley GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 13.0% over Lab Turnout 20.2% | |
| Lewes, Wivelsfield GREEN HELD 13.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 32.7% | |
| Middlesbrough, Hemlington LAB HELD 21.5% over Con Turnout 18.9% | |
| Mid Suffolk, Hoxne & Eye CON HELD 0.2% over Green Turnout 24.6% | |
| Monmouthshire, Town CON GAIN FROM LAB 27.9% over Lab Turnout 33.7% | |
| New Forest, Barton and Becton CON HELD 14.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 19.6% | |
| North East Derbyshire, Clay Cross North CON GAIN FROM LAB 21.9% over Lab Turnout 22.1% | |
| North Hertfordshire, Royston Palace LAB HELD 0.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 27.3% | |
| North Northamptonshire, Burton and Broughton CON HELD 22.2% over Green Turnout 20.4% | |
| Pembrokeshire, The Havens CON GAIN FROM IND 22.0 over Ind Turnout 45.6% | |
| Powys, Machynlleth PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM IND 5.4% over Ind Turnout 44.2% | |
| Rochdale, North Middleton MIDDLETON IND HELD 15.3 over Lab Turnout 17.5% | |
| Runnymede, Addlestone South CON HELD 27.7% over Lab Turnout 18.0% | |
| Salford, Eccles LAB HELD 28.3% over Con Turnout 16.5% | |
| Southampton, Shirley LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 15.0% over Con Turnout 31.0% | |
| South Cambridgeshire, Histon and Impington LIB DEM HELD 13.4% over Ind Turnout 28.6% | |
| South Ribble, Bamber Bridge West LAB HELD 11.9% over Con Turnout 18.2% | |
| South Ribble, Middleforth CON GAIN FROM LAB 13.9% over Lab Turnout 19.6% | |
| St Albans, Harpenden North & Rural CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 8.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.2% | |
| Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 4.4% over Lib Dem Turnout 37.0% | |
| Stockport. Bredbury Green & Romiley LIB DEM HELD 41.7% over Con Turnout 21.5% | |
| Stockport, Cheadle West & Gatley LIB DEM HELD 23.6% over Con Turnout 22.0% | |
| Swindon, Rodbourne Cheney CON GAIN FROM LAB 14.6% over Lab Turnout 21.7% | |
| Surrey Heath, Old Dean LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 13.2% over Con Turnout 22.6% | |
| Westmorland and Furness, Grange and Cartmel LIB DEM HELD 70.2% over Con Turnout 29.8% | |
| Westmorland and Furness, Kirkby Stephen and Tebay LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 65.3% over Con Turnout 26.2% | |
| Windsor and Maidenhead, Ascot and Sunninghill CON HELD 26.0% over LIB DEM Turnout 24.8% | |
| Wolverhampton, Bilston North REFORM UK GAIN FROM LAB 9.7% over Lab Turnout 19.4% | |
| Worthing, Heene CON GAIN FROM LAB 2.2% over Lab Turnout 27.0% | |
| Ynys Môn, Talybolion IND GAIN FROM PLAID CYMRU 12.2% over Plaid Turnout 31.9% |
- For additional data on these and other recent local election results, please download the Excel spreadsheet of by-election results below.
