Many of the Conservative councillors who face re-election on 1 May have benefited from events.
In 2017, in the midst of a general election campaign, their party gained hundreds of seats. In 2021, the so-called ‘vaccine bounce’ helped the Conservatives, under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to win nearly two-thirds of all vacancies as they registered their best local election performance since 2008.
Now things look rather different. The party continues to struggle to recover from its 2024 general election defeat and although recently it has been making net gains in council by-elections, these have tended to be in places where the comparison is with the depths of the Truss/Sunak era, rather than the sunny uplands of 2021.
The total number of Conservative councillors is at its lowest for a quarter of a century and looks set to fall further – not that Labour is well placed to take full advantage.
Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘new’ government is not so new, the shire county and unitary elections largely take place well outside the Labour heartlands, and the party has problems of its own with internal dissent over policies varying from Gaza, through winter fuel payments, to benefit cuts. Indeed, it has lost more than 100 councillors since last May through defections and by-election defeats.
The trials of the two main parties open the door to their rivals on both the left and right. The Liberal Democrats and Greens will expect to make progress in some of the more affluent suburbs and county towns of southern England; Reform UK is poised to shake up the establishment in rural and coastal areas in particular. And never forget the Independents and community groups, whose numbers have been rising in response to a general anti-politics mood and who now comprise more than 10 per cent of councillors in England.
Following the postponement of contests pending local government reorganisation in seven counties and two unitary authorities, 12 million electors (around a third of the English total) have a vote to choose 1,641 councillors across 23 local authorities. Accounting for boundary changes in 11 councils, the Conservatives defend just less than 1,000 seats from 2021, Labour about 300, the Liberal Democrats 200 and the Greens fewer than 50.
In 2021, the Conservatives won three-quarters or more of the seats in six of the 14 counties where elections have survived, yet can be certain of retaining a majority in none of them.
Labour is unlikely to win anywhere outright. Its best chance on paper is Lancashire, where control would be flipped if 11 seats were gained on a direct swing of a little more than 5 per cent from the Conservatives. But that straightforward calculation discounts the potential and often unpredictable impact of other parties.
“Boundary changes in six of the eight unitary authorities make precise comparisons difficult”
Nottinghamshire is another county that has often been run by Labour. Here, though, the party’s prospects have long been damaged by the success of Independents and, at the general election, Reform, in its former stronghold of Ashfield.
In Kent and Lincolnshire, Reform poses the greatest threat to what, on paper, look like unassailable Conservative majorities. There is a legacy of strong UKIP support from 2013, with that party topping the poll then in Swale and Thanet (Kent), and in Boston and South Holland (Lincolnshire).
Labour is also, in principle, vulnerable to Reform here, but its weakness at these elections is reflected in the fact that it defends just 11 seats across both counties.
The Liberal Democrats are currently the second party in Cambridgeshire, Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire (all under no overall control), and in Hertfordshire. All present opportunities for seat gains, building on recent district council and general election successes.
The Conservatives dominate most of the eight unitary authorities with elections, too.
Boundary changes in six of them make precise comparisons difficult, but it is significant that the party polled well under half the vote last time, even in places such as Buckinghamshire and the two Northamptonshires, where it enjoys big majorities. A relatively modest swing could quickly alter the picture.
Labour lost control of County Durham – where the number of councillors has been reduced from 126 to 98 – for the first time in 100 years in 2021. To restore its position, the party faces the stiff task of winning back seats not so much from the Conservatives as from Independent groups now liberally scattered across the county. In its rear-view mirror too is Reform, which came second in five of seven constituencies last year.
The sole metropolitan borough that goes to the polls – and the sole Labour council being defended – is Doncaster.
UKIP came second here in 2014, with 32 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 38 per cent, but topped the poll in just one ward. However, Nigel Farage’s then party came second in a further 17 wards and that is the kind of foundation that Reform will attempt to build on in seeking to deprive Labour of control.
In addition, Ros Jones stands for re-election as Mayor, hoping that a recent announcement about the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield Airport (formerly known as Robin Hood Airport) will boost her support. Just to confuse matters, the Reform mayoral candidate is also called Jones!
In North Tyneside, the mayoral contest is a stand-alone event. Labour’s Norma Redfearn has won a clear majority of votes cast here in each of the previous three occasions on which she has stood.
There are also four combined authority mayoral elections taking place on 1 May.
Labour defends the West of England area, where no Conservative MPs were elected in 2024. Despite Reform choosing the high-profile Aaron Banks as its candidate, this is a contest where both the Greens and Liberal Democrats have local strength and could have a role to play.
Labour only won Cambridgeshire and Peterborough in 2021 after the distribution of second preferences allowed the party to come from behind.
With Labour and the Liberal Democrats both gaining constituencies from the Conservatives last year, and with the Fenland and Huntingdonshire districts, in particular, showing themselves as repositories of UKIP and Brexit support a decade ago, the election is likely to be closely fought.
The other two elections are inaugural contests on either side of the Humber estuary.
In the Hull and East Yorkshire area, two rather different authorities are combined. Hull City has no Conservative councillors, whereas the East Riding of Yorkshire Council has been under Conservative leadership (if not always majority control) since it was created in 1996.
The Greater Lincolnshire area is similarly an amalgam of rather different territories, both politically and socially.
North East Lincolnshire (Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes) has often voted Labour, though strongly supported Brexit in 2016; Lincolnshire County Council has been dominated by the Conservatives throughout its 50-year existence.
In parts of the county, though, Reform’s threat to the mainstream is only too clear. In 2024, the party won the Boston and Skegness parliamentary constituency (previously the second-safest Conservative seat in the entire country). Reform’s Andrea Jenkyns, previously Conservative MP for Morley and Outwood, cannot be ruled out.
| Con | Lab | Lib Dem | In/Other | No overall control | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current control | 16 | 1 | – | – | 6 |
| Seats being defended* | 996 | 286 | 207 | 152 |