The electors’ verdict
Labour will have to wait to see if May’s local election results presage a General Election victory.
Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher
Going to the polls
This year’s local elections in England encompass more than 8,000 seats in 230 councils, with 49 of them having undergone a boundary review.
Patterns of party competition
There are just four by-elections to report but three may offer clues about the May elections.
Greens ‘becoming stronger’
Only one seat changed hands in this latest batch of 10 local by-elections, as the Greens recaptured Hythe West in Kent from the Conservatives.
Casual vacancies
Most, though not all, by-elections now being held are in councils that do not have contests scheduled for May.
Voter ID and May polls
Although there have been no postal strikes since Christmas with their potential impact on postal voting, a cold January has done little to persuade a seemingly unenthused electorate to turn out in numbers.
Record low turnout
Wigan’s Ashton ward has established an unenviable record, recording the lowest turnout in any council by-election: just 5.3 per cent.
Turnovers, defeats and split decisions
Sixteen of the latest batch of 33 councillor vacancies (48 per cent) saw a seat change hands.
Local factors and surprise gains
Local factors and changing patterns of party competition continue to feature in recent by-elections, including two surprising Conservative gains from Labour.
Warning shots fired
We have a new Prime Minister – and although local elections will be nowhere near the top of her burgeoning agenda, seasoned observers know that the weekly results from up and down the country can be leading indicators of the ebb and flow of political fortunes.