Many councillors took the opportunity of the snap general election to resign their seats, minimising the costs to local authorities of conducting by-elections.
As expected, turnout was much higher than normal, with one notable exception.
A broader section of electors participating on 4 July may explain the fact that among the local seats changing hands there were many combinations of victor and vanquished.
It is also worth remarking upon some similarities between last May’s local elections and the general election.
Our estimate of the ‘national equivalent vote’, based on voting in May, put Labour ahead but on just 34 per cent, with the Conservatives on 27 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats were on 16 per cent with the Greens, Reform, Independents and small local parties combined receiving 23 per cent.
The general election saw Labour with 35 per cent, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent. The votes for ‘others’ reached 28 per cent, with Reform alone polling 15 per cent.
Labour’s landslide majority was achieved on a historically low vote for a winning party.
Both elections produced a highly fragmented vote distribution, with large numbers of voters preferring alternatives to the two main parties, whose combined vote share of just 59 per cent establishes a new benchmark.
There was little evidence in by-elections before the 4 July vote of the changes to come for the Conservatives.
The party gained a seat from Independent in Rhiwcynon, Powys, where eight candidates contested the vacancy, similar to the average of seven candidates that would stand at the general election.
A loss to Labour in Mansfield’s West Bank ward produced a 14-point fall in the Conservative vote but, with the parliamentary election due just days later, only a fifth of the electorate turned out.
Conservative fears of Reform UK eating into their support proved to be well founded. They lost East Riding of Yorkshire’s South East Holderness ward to Reform but managed, by just 124 votes, to hold on to the Beverley and Holderness parliamentary seat.
Although Labour was successful in Gosport’s Conservative-defended Grange and Alver Valley ward – albeit on a relatively low 43 per cent turnout – it could not repeat the feat in the Gosport parliamentary seat, despite a 26-point decline in the incumbent party’s vote share.
The Liberal Democrats won their highest number of parliamentary seats and were optimistic of their chances of unseating the Conservatives in Runnymede and Weybridge.
But the task remained beyond them, losing Elmbridge’s Cobham and Downside ward into the bargain.
The Greens won four seats at the general election, including retaining their Brighton Pavilion seat. Although not in that constituency, the party also gained Brighton & Hove’s Brunswick & Adelaide ward from Labour.
Another Green gain from Labour took place in Lancaster’s University ward.
Neither the local authority nor the ward are strangers to by-elections. Lancaster has now conducted 66 by-elections since the mid-1980s, while the University ward, whose electorate mostly comprises students, has been responsible for five of those.
Doubtless, many of those students had left the campus with exams over but a 5.4 per cent turnout on the same day as a general election does suggest a lack of engagement.
Before readers write in and ask, the record low turnout of 5.3 per cent still remains with Wigan’s Ashton ward.
There were two further defeats for Labour – one delivered by the Liberal Democrats, another by the Conservatives. In Preston, it lost the Lea and Larches ward to the Liberal Democrats, watching its vote share collapse by 31 percentage points.
The Conservative victory in South Derbyshire’s Hatton ward had little to do with its own performance and relied upon the Liberal Democrats squeezing both main parties but especially Labour.
This outcome needs to be set alongside Labour’s success, by just 350 votes, in capturing the Derbyshire Dales parliamentary constituency – which includes the Hatton ward – from the Conservatives.
Basildon South and East Thurrock was one of the last parliamentary seats to declare, eventually resulting in a fifth seat for Reform UK who edged out Labour by just 98 votes as the Conservatives fell to third place.
Much of Essex’s Pitsea division is located within the parliamentary boundary and so Labour’s victory here would have helped its cause but turnout of just 41 per cent was 12 points lower than recorded for the parliamentary seat.
| By-elections | |
|---|---|
| Barnet, Barnet Vale LAB HELD 4.9% over Con Turnout 65.9% | |
| Elmbridge, Cobham and Downside CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 11.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 62.0% | |
| Essex, Basildon Pitsea LAB GAIN FROM CON 11.8% over Con Turnout 41.2% | |
| Fenland, Whittlesey South CON HELD 7.0% over Ind Turnout 58.2% | |
| Greenwich, Mottingham, Coldharbour and New Eltham CON HELD 8.9% over Lab Turnout 27.3% | |
| Gosport, Grange and Alver Valley LAB GAIN FROM CON 5.7% over Con Turnout 43.0% | |
| Hackney, Cazenove LAB HELD 2.6% over Con Turnout 52.2% Turnout 29.6% | |
| Hackney, Hoxton West LAB HELD 46.7% over Green Turnout 13.9% | |
| Haringey, Hornsey LAB HELD 26.8% over Green Turnout 64.6% | |
| Hounslow, Hanworth Village LAB HELD 17.1% over Con Turnout 45.3% | |
| Kingston Upon Thames, Hook and Chessington North LIB DEM HELD 20.6% over Con Turnout 60.0% | |
| Lambeth, Streatham Common and Vale LAB HELD 24.1% over Green Turnout 50.3% | |
| Lancaster, University GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 6.1% over Lab Turnout 5.4% | |
| Lewisham, Blackheath LAB HELD 22.0% over Green Turnout 60.1% | |
| Liverpool, Broadgreen LAB HELD 22.8% over Lib Dem Turnout 59.0% | |
| Liverpool, Clubmoor East LAB HELD 69.4% over Green Turnout 47.0% | |
| Liverpool, Fazakerley North LAB HELD 59.4% over Liverpool Community Independents Turnout 56.0% | |
| Mansfield, West Bank LAB GAIN FROM CON 6.1% over Mans Ind Turnout 20.0% | |
| Merton, St Helier LAB HELD 25.5% over Green Turnout 51.6% | |
| Middlesbrough, Acklam LAB HELD 7.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 61.8% | |
| Middlesbrough, Central LAB HELD 42.4% over Con Turnout 34.4% | |
| Mid Devon, Tiverton Westexe LIB DEM HELD 19.3% over Con Turnout 19.4% | |
| Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Madeley and Betley 2 CON HELD 3.2% over Ind Turnout 71.5% | |
| Newham, Forest Gate North LAB HELD 16.8% over Newham Ind Turnout 53.0% | |
| Newham, Maryland LAB HELD 19.3% over Newham Ind Turnout 41.0% | |
| North Lincolnshire, Axholme North CON HELD 38.9% over Lab Turnout 20.7% | |
| North Lincolnshire, Brumby LAB HELD 32.1% over Con Turnout 11.9% | |
| North Norfolk, North Walsham East LIB DEM HELD 11.5% over Con Turnout 55.4% | |
| Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay and Marcham LIB DEM HELD 2.4% over Con Turnout 20.0% | |
| Powys, Rhiwcynon CON GAIN FROM IND 7.5% over Plaid Cymru Turnout 50.4% | |
| Preston, Lea and Larches LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 4.3% over Lab Turnout 48.8% | |
| Ribble Valley, St Mary’s LAB GAIN FROM LIB DEM 0.8% over Con Turnout 72.9% | |
| Sefton, Linacre LAB HELD 68.1% over Workers Party Turnout 32.3% | |
| Sefton, St. Oswald LAB HELD 71.9% over Con Turnout 13.1% | |
| South Derbyshire, Hatton CON GAIN FROM LAB 9.2% over Lab Turnout 50.6% | |
| South Gloucestershire, Kingswood LAB HELD 32.2% over Con Turnout 53.9% | |
| Southend-On-Sea, Kursaal LAB HELD 31.5% over Con Turnout 45.0% | |
| South Tyneside, Primrose IND HELD 15.6% over Lab Turnout 23.3% | |
| Southwark, Faraday LAB HELD 33.1% over Green Turnout 44.7% | |
| Southwark, Rye Lane LAB HELD 21.3% over Green Turnout 53.9% | |
| Spelthorne, Ashford East CON GAIN FROM IND 2.9% over Ind Turnout 58.8% | |
| St Helens, Windle LAB HELD 31.8% over Green Turnout 56.0% | |
| Suffolk, Pakefield LAB GAIN FROM CON 5.7% over Con Turnout 57.8% | |
| Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge LAB HELD 28.4% over Con Turnout 21.5% | |
| Three Rivers, Rickmansworth Town CON HELD 9.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 68.4% | |
| Tonbridge and Malling, Judd GREEN HELD 39.2% over Con Turnout 68.9% | |
| Torbay, Wellswood CON HELD 0.4% over Lib Dem Turnout 38.4% | |
| Vale Of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay LIB DEM HELD 1.8% over Green Turnout 20.0% | |
| Westminster, Abbey Road CON HELD 12.1% over Lab Turnout 52.2% | |
| Winchester, St Michael LIB DEM HELD 22.3% over Con Turnout 73.4% | |
| Wirral, Liscard LAB HELD 44.7% over Green Turnout 51.9% | |
| York, Hull Road LAB HELD 6.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 35.5% |
- For more information on these and other recent by-election results, please view the full elections spreadsheat.
