Losing more than 1,000 councillors last May, and suffering regular by-election defeats, the Conservatives must be hoping fortunes improve as the next General Election looms.
But Labour is not taking full advantage of the Conservative slump because the Liberal Democrats continue to make the running, even taking a seat from the Greens.
That was in North Yorkshire’s Sowerby & Topcliffe ward, where Dave Whitfield won in 2022 by just 81 votes in a straight fight with his Conservative opponent. A Conservative win would have given them a council majority but it was Liberal Democrat Dan Sladden who prevailed, with the Greens relegated to third.
The Greens did rather better in Camden’s Highgate ward when safely navigating the seat’s defence, enjoying a 14-point swing from Labour in the process.
Three Liberal Democrat gains from Conservative came in quick succession, beginning in Hertfordshire where the party easily defended its vacancy in St Albans but also took the county division of Harpenden Rural.
This may once have been regarded as safe Conservative territory, won in both 2017 and 2021 with over half the vote. But last May’s elections in St Albans saw the Liberal Democrats winning over half the authority-wide votes.
Billinghay Rural tends to be a North Kesteven ward that votes Conservative, when it votes at all, that is. In 2019, the Conservatives made only one nomination for the two-member ward and a by-election was required to fill the vacancy.
Last May, the Conservatives nominated two candidates who were duly elected. The long-serving Gill Ogden then sadly died creating this new vacancy. Despite having never contested the ward before, the Liberal Democrats stood this time with Adrian Whittle the surprising winner.
Following councillor resignations, the Conservatives were faced with three by-election defences in Warwickshire.
The county council’s Dunsmore & Leam Valley division was retained, as was one of the seats in Rugby’s Dunsmore ward, but the other fell to the Liberal Democrats’ Jonathan Bennett who had finished third in the same ward only last May.
It was unsurprising that the Liberal Democrats would take a seat formerly occupied by an Independent in Cambridge’s Queen Edith’s ward. Elected in 2021, Sam Davies was the only Independent on the council but her resignation gave the Liberal Democrats the opportunity to secure all three ward seats.
Politics in the Middle East has produced tensions within the Labour party and it dominated campaigning in Newham’s Plaistow North ward, where the census shows more than four in ten adults are Muslim. Six candidates contested, with one of the two Independents, Sophia Naqvi, winning over 500 votes more than her Labour rival.
Overall in 2023, there were 162 by-elections for 165 seats, of which 64 (39 per cent) resulted in a seat changing hands. More than two-thirds of vacancies (111) were caused by resignations, and 51 resulted from the incumbent’s death.
The Conservatives struggled to defend seats, although there were seven gains, four of which were from Labour. With 36 seats lost, the Conservatives lost more than six in ten of those it was defending.
Although Labour performed best in the main May elections, it has struggled to make a real impact in by-elections. It won only 10 times contesting Conservative seats, and made an overall net gain of just two seats.
The best performance was by the Liberal Democrats, taking 18 seats from the Conservatives, accounting for half that party’s total losses. There were also gains from Labour and, despite three defeats to the Greens, the party made a net gain of 22 seats.
The Greens made 12 gains (including seven from the Conservatives) and four losses.
| local by-elections | |
|---|---|
| Bromley, Hayes and Coney Hall CON HELD 18.0% over Lab Turnout 27.0% | |
| Cambridge, Queen Edith’s LIB DEM GAIN FROM IND 3.1% over Lab Turnout 32.3% | |
| Camden, Highgate GREEN HELD 30.0% over Lab Turnout 33.0% | |
| Cotswold, Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South LIB DEM HELD 5.6% over Con Turnout 31.7% | |
| Denbighshire, Rhyl South West LAB HELD 18.0% over Ind Turnout 12.3% | |
| Durham, Dawdon LAB HELD 19.0% over Ind Turnout 14.8% | |
| Hertfordshire, Harpenden Rural LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 28.0% over Con Turnout 22.6% | |
| Newham, Plaistow North IND GAIN FROM LAB 18.8% over Lab Turnout 25.1% | |
| North Kesteven, Billinghay Rural LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 11.6% over Con Turnout 19.9% | |
| North Norfolk, Briston LIB DEM HELD 9.8% over Con Turnout 33.6% | |
| North Yorkshire, Sowerby & Topcliffe LIB DEM GAIN FROM GREEN 16.6% over Con Turnout 29.3% | |
| Powys, Talybont-On-Usk LIB DEM HELD 16.1% over Con Turnout 43.9% | |
| Rugby, Dunsmore LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON/ CON HELD 1.0% over Con Turnout 24.2% | |
| St Albans, Sandridge & Wheathampstead LIB DEM HELD 22.1% over Con Turnout 23.4% | |
| Swale, Abbey LIB DEM HELD 27.0% over Green Turnout 23.5% | |
| Three Rivers, Chorleywood South and Maple Cross LIB DEM HELD 28.1% over Con Turnout 21.4% | |
| Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam Valley CON HELD 12.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 39.8% |
For more data on these and other recent by-election results, please view our excel spreadsheet.
