Changing face of local government

The face of local government in England is undergoing incremental yet quite radical change.

First, the creation of more single tier local authorities has reduced the total number of councils – from 341 in May 2019, to 315 now.  

Fewer councils mean fewer councillors, reinforced by the tendency for the Local Government Boundary Commission to shrink councillor numbers in its periodic electoral reviews. Some 1,000 councillors have been ‘lost’ since 2019.  

Those councils and councillors who remain are increasingly likely to be elected ‘en bloc’ once every four years rather than by thirds. Last year Amber Valley, Derby, Liverpool and Slough joined those ranks; this year Maidstone, North Hertfordshire, and Worcester can be added.  

In a general election year, this May’s local contests will attract especial attention. 

In most cases, they reprise elections that should have been held in 2020 but were held over until 2021. Councillors elected then have therefore only served three rather than the usual four years, and the political climate now looks very different.

In 2021, our estimate of the national equivalent vote at the local elections had the Conservatives 10 points ahead of Labour on 40 per cent to 30 per cent. 

Now, one has to go back to the autumn of 2022, before the defenestration of Prime Minister Liz Truss, to find a single opinion poll that has Labour anything less than 10 percentage points in front. 

That suggests big Labour gains among the more than 2,600 seats being fought across 107 principal councils. The two main parties are each defending nearly 1,000 seats, with 400 Liberal Democrats and more than 100 Greens also bidding for re-election. 

Although elections by thirds tend to limit the scope for dramatic shifts in council control, it will be worth keeping an eye on some of the 27 authorities where either a change in electoral cycle or the implementation of boundary changes mean all seats are up for grabs. 

In the West Midlands, the Conservatives took control of Dudley and of Nuneaton and Bedworth Councils in 2021. Both had been Labour for most of their existence since 1973, and the party will now be looking to restore that situation. 

In each case, the substantial advantage the Conservatives currently enjoy is threatened by a whole council election. 

A similar situation pertains in Essex.  

Basildon has not been Labour controlled this century, but a handful of gains would leave the council hung. 

Harlow, by contrast, was Labour for nearly 30 years until 2002 and then again between 2012 and 2021. A turnover of six seats on the notional results in the newly redrawn wards would now put Labour back in charge. 

What all four council areas additionally have in common is that they encompass parliamentary constituencies in which the Conservatives have built substantial majorities in recent years, but where Labour may now feel it has an outside chance at the General Election. 

There are also elections in the ‘county unitary’ of Dorset for the first time in five years. The Conservatives defend nothing like the same high-water mark as in 2021, but will still be wary of being ambushed by the Liberal Democrats as their colleagues in neighbouring Somerset were in 2022. These results too may carry national level implications.

For additional data on these and other recent by-election results, please view this spreadsheet.