Labour has lost a net 22 council seats in by-elections since July, with its average vote share in all such contests falling by more than 10 percentage points.
Between the 1992 and 1997 general elections, the Conservatives lost almost half their councillors and ended up in third place behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Labour could face a similar fate unless it can turn things around – and that is by no means impossible, given the volatility that characterises party politics at present.
Take, for example, Labour’s post-election gain from the Conservatives, in Blackpool Bispham, just days before Kemi Badenoch was confirmed as the new Leader of the Opposition.
It amounted to a warning shot for both parties: the Conservative share more than halved since the previous contest in 2023 and Labour slipped through the middle to win – despite its own vote also dropping sharply.
On the same day, and in nearby Marsh Mill ward in Wyre, the electoral lottery played out differently. Again, both major parties saw their vote shares drop – but this time, Reform UK scooped up enough of the fallout to win comfortably.
Reform, with just 10 councillors across England and Wales following the May 2024 local elections, has since added six to that total and, in November, contested more than two-thirds of the vacancies.
It prevailed in both the district and county contests in Leave-voting Dartford following the death of the previous Residents’ Association councillor, and came within 10 votes of winning Woodhouse in Sheffield.
The formal result there is a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, but the councillor whose death prompted the by-election had left Labour to join the Sheffield Community Councillors group.
That may explain the decline in Labour support in Woodhouse, with both the Liberal Democrats and Reform attracting new – if, presumably, rather different – types of supporter.
The Liberal Democrats’ other gain this month, also from Labour, was in the rather different environment of Chipping Norton, in Oxfordshire. The ward had elected Labour councillors for most of the past decade or more, and the Liberal Democrats have usually finished bottom of the poll. Volatile voters indeed.
The Lib Dems lost seats and vote share to the Conservatives in Denne, Horsham – where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates shared the distinction of having been granted the Freedom of the City of London – and in Blackmoor Vale, Somerset.
Small signs, perhaps, that the ‘blue wall’ that party leader Sir Ed Davey took such pleasure in dismantling may be being repointed at least.
| By-elections | |
|---|---|
| Barking & Dagenham, Northbury LAB HELD 41.2% over Green Turnout 11.2% | |
| Barking and Dagenham, Village TWO LAB HELD 13.0% over Con Turnout 18.2% | |
| Blackpool, Bispham LAB GAIN FROM CON 0.9% over Reform Turnout 31.4% | |
| Bracknell Forest, Great Hollands LAB HELD 17.7% over Con Turnout 23.0% | |
| Dacorum, Bennetts End LAB GAIN FROM IND 0.6% over Con Turnout 16.2% | |
| Dacorum, Hemel Hempstead Town CON GAIN FROM LD 21.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 13.4% | |
| Dartford, Greenhithe and Knockhall REFORM GAIN FROM RES 3.6% over Res Turnout 16.1% | |
| Derbyshire Dales, Calver and Longstone CON GAIN FROM GREEN 4.4% over Green Turnout 33.0% | |
| Enfield, Jubilee LAB HELD 7.5% over Con Turnout 21.1% | |
| Greenwich, Shooters Hill LAB HELD 44.7% over Con Turnout 22.5% | |
| Gosport, Harbourside and Town CON GAIN FROM LAB 20.7% over Lab Turnout 24.8% | |
| Herefordshire, Bishops Frome and Cradley GREEN HELD 35.7% over Con Turnout 33.2% | |
| Horsham, Denne CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 2.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 23.1% | |
| Islington, Junction LAB HELD 11.2% over Ind Turnout 21.3% | |
| Kent, Swanscombe and Greenhithe REFORM GAIN FROM RES 4.5% over Lab Turnout 15.3% | |
| Milton Keynes, Bradwell LIB DEM HELD 39.7% over Lab Turnout 21.0% | |
| Milton Keynes, Broughton LIB DEM HELD 27.7% over Con Turnout 16.0% | |
| Redbridge, Wanstead Park LAB HELD 29.4% over Con Turnout 33.2% | |
| Rutland, Oakham North East LIB DEM HELD 1.2% over Con Turnout 27.0% | |
| Sefton , Litherland LAB HELD 9.7% over Green Turnout 12.4% | |
| Sheffield, Woodhouse LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 0.3% over Reform Turnout 24.2% | |
| Somerset, Blackmoor Vale CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 20.8% over Lib Dem Turnout 26.1% | |
| Somerset, Rowbarton and Staplegrove LIB DEM HELD 30.0% over Con Turnout 18.3% | |
| South Gloucestershire, Frampton Cotterell LIB DEM HELD 7.5% over Con Turnout 25.5% | |
| Swale, Murston RES HELD 5.1% over Lab Turnout 17.0% | |
| Telford & Wrekin, Hadley & Leegomery LAB HELD 13.9% over Con Turnout 22.0% | |
| Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge LAB HELD 0.9% over Con Turnout 22.0% | |
| West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 1.6% over Con Turnout 22.7% | |
| Wyre, Marsh Mill REFORM GAIN FROM CON 8.0% over Con Turnout 30.3% | |
| York, Haxby and Wigginton LIB DEM HELD 48.9% over Con Turnout 29.5% |
- For additional data on these and other recent local election results, please download the Excel spreadsheet of by-election results below.