Reform UK’s electoral momentum continues with another five gains (three from Labour, two from Conservative), bringing its total to 13 since the general election.
In 12 of the remaining 25 seats considered here, Reform candidates finished in second place.
Conservatives enjoyed success against Labour and the Greens but internal divisions continue to undermine its recovery. Labour’s seven defeats brought its total net losses to 33 seats since coming to power nationally.
The resignation as councillors of two recent additions to the House of Commons resulted in a two-seat vacancy in Medway’s Rochester East & Warren Wood. Labour gained council control in 2023 but the loss of both seats to Reform means its majority has now gone.
Reform also won in Torfaen’s Trevithin & Penygarn ward, winning the seat with 47 per cent of the vote as Labour’s vote dropped. The Conservatives chose not to contest but Reform had to overcome the challenge from two Independents and a Green.
The resignation on health grounds of The Bentleys and Frating long-serving Cllr Lynda McWilliams presented the Conservatives with a difficult challenge in Tendring. The ward forms part of Nigel Farage’s Clacton constituency and a 38-point swing to Reform proved more than adequate with the Conservatives slipping to third place.
In 2015, Conservatives were unopposed in Breckland’s Bedingfeld ward and remained safe thereafter. However, the fate of local MP Liz Truss, beaten by Labour at the general election, demonstrated the extent of party decline.
Reform, which won over a fifth of the constituency vote last July, successfully squeezed both main parties and won over half the votes.
On paper, the Conservatives faced few problems ousting Labour in both Hyndburn and Westminster.
In the former, Baxenden ward was steadfast in its support for the Conservatives until 2024 when Labour clinched victory by just 24 votes. However, UKIP polled well here previously and Reform did better, finishing only 38 votes behind the winner as Labour slumped to third.
Westminster’s Vincent Square ward regularly contributed towards the Conservatives’ council majority – until 2022, when Labour, on its way to securing council control, snatched one of the three ward seats on offer by just 27 votes. The Conservatives duly recaptured the seat this time but largely because of the swing away from Labour to Reform.
The Conservatives were edged out by an Independent and Green at the 2023 contest for New Forest’s Bransgore two-member ward. The absence of an Independent candidate this time doubtless contributed to a 33-point surge in Conservative support and a comfortable victory.
Green compensation came with a gain from Labour in Warwick where the two parties form the administration. In All Saints and Woodloes, Labour took all three seats in 2023 while a by-election in January 2024 saw the party safely defend with the Greens absent.
With Labour now in government, however, the Greens sense vulnerability, a tactic that may increase in the future.
Pendle’s Vivary Bridge ward has mostly elected Conservative councillors in recent years with the Liberal Democrats previously strong there. The vacancy arose after the resignation of Conservative Keiran McGladdery, and Reform selected a former Conservative ward councillor as its candidate.
This tactic affected the votes of both major parties but the absence of a Green candidate proved key to a narrow Liberal Democrat victory.
The Conservatives were unable to defend the vacancy in the Haverfordwest Prendergast ward after their councillor left the party to sit as an Independent before finally resigning his seat. Despite opposition from party candidates, it was Independent Alun Wills who topped the polled with under a third of the vote.
Independent Theo Dennison contested Hounslow’s Syon and Brentford Lock ward in 2022, finishing in fourth place behind three Labour winners. Previously, Dennison was Labour councillor for the predecessor Syon ward before resigning the party whip.
In May 2024, he contested Brentford West in a by-election, finishing second, before going one better to win this by-election – but only by 12 votes.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Barking & Dagenham, Whalebone LAB HELD 29.7% over Con Turnout 12.3% |
| Barnet, Burnt Oak LAB HELD 23.8% over Con Turnout 17.3% |
| Barnet, Finchley Church End CON HELD 15.9% over Lab Turnout 25.7% |
| Breckland, Bedingfeld REF GAIN FROM CON 26.9% over Con Turnout 29.9% |
| Brent, Alperton LIB DEM HELD 25.5% over Lab Turnout 33.7% |
| Canterbury, Gorrell GREEN HELD 26.2% over Lab Turnout 28.6% |
| Canterbury, Herne and Broomfield CON HELD 6.1% over Ref Turnout 20.0% |
| Canterbury, St Stephen's LAB HELD 28.6% over Ref Turnout 26.3% |
| Carmarthenshire, Llanddarog PLAID HELD 36.3% over Ref Turnout 41.2% |
| Colchester, Tiptree CON HELD 26.5% over Ref Turnout 25.9% |
| Eastleigh, Hamble and Netley LIB DEM HELD 29.0% over Ref Turnout 29.2% |
| East Suffolk, Rushmere St Andrew CON HELD 0.3% over Green Turnout 35.6% |
| East Suffolk, Woodbridge LIB DEM HELD 33.1% over Con Turnout 30.0% |
| Hammersmith & Fulham, Hammersmith Broadway LAB HELD 39.7% over Ref Turnout 21.2% |
| Hammersmith & Fulham, Lillie LAB HELD 9.9% over Con Turnout 24.0% |
| Hounslow, Brentford East LAB HELD 26.1% over Ref Turnout 15.0% |
| Hounslow, Syon & Brentford Lock IND GAIN FROM LAB 0.7% over Lab Turnout 20.9% |
| Hyndburn, Baxenden CON GAIN FROM LAB 3.3% over Ref Turnout 36.6% |
| Medway, Gillingham South LAB HELD 10.6% over Ref Turnout 16.4% |
| Medway, Rochester East & Warren Wood 2 REF GAIN FROM LAB 3.8% over Lab Turnout 24.4% |
| New Forest, Bransgore, Burley, Sopley and Ringwood East CON GAIN FROM GREEN 41.1% over Green Turnout 30.0% |
| Pembrokeshire, Haverfordwest Prendergast IND GAIN FROM CON 6.2% over Lib Dem Turnout 37.1% |
| Pendle, Vivary Bridge LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 2.7% over Ref Turnout 20.7% |
| Stevenage, Manor LIB DEM HELD 32.2% over Ref Turnout 25.2% |
| Tendring, The Bentleys and Frating REF GAIN FROM CON 10.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 30.8% |
| Torfaen, Trevethin & Penygarn REF GAIN FROM LAB 20.4% over Lab Turnout 24.7% |
| Warwick, Warwick All Saints & Woodloes GREEN GAIN FROM LAB 12.9% over Ref Turnout 27.8% |
| Westminster, Vincent Square CON GAIN FROM LAB 12.9% over Lab Turnout 29.1% |
| Westmorland and Furness, Eamont and Shap LIB DEM HELD 46.7% over Con Turnout 34.1% |
| Wokingham, Winnersh LIB DEM HELD 15.4% over Con Turnout 28.1% |
- For more information on all recent by-elections, please download the excel below.