Greens ‘becoming stronger’

Only one seat changed hands in this latest batch of 10 local by-elections, as the Greens recaptured Hythe West in Kent from the Conservatives.  

Jenni Hawkins’ victory adds to the party’s presence on the county council and encourages its district councillors that they will shortly retain seats on Folkestone & Hythe District Council.

The Greens will be defending more than 200 seats in May, but should add to that number, such is the party’s current progress. 

Between recording its first by-election gain in the now-defunct Glanford District Council, in June 1990, and 2019, the Green Party made 28 gains.  

In the past two years alone, it has matched that number, largely at the expense of the Conservatives, who have lost 21 seats to them.  

A combination of electoral dissatisfaction with the Conservatives, nationally and locally, and opportunities often arising from planning and environmental issues, the Greens are becoming stronger. But there remains a notable geographic skew in performance. 

Seven in 10 by-election successes have been across the South East, South West and Eastern England. In the annual May elections, the party struggles to have broad appeal, with the notable exceptions of Brighton & Hove, and Bristol.  

We should also mention Lancaster and Sheffield in the North, with Norwich, Solihull and Stroud further south, where the party now has resilience,  and there are many other councils where Greens are elected in smaller numbers.

While the Greens do not claim to have anywhere near the electoral base that, for example, the Liberal Democrats still retain, they do have momentum. 

In the three years before the pandemic, Green candidates contested half of all by-election vacancies, with Liberal Democrat challengers in more than eight in 10.  

Since 2021, the Greens have been contesting 56 per cent of seats, while the Liberal Democrats have fallen back to 74 per cent.  

Frequently, far from avoiding one another, the two parties stand together. Despite this, there are instances where enthusiasts for an electoral pact play the ‘what if’ game.  

The Conservatives’ two successful defences in Staffordshire, where the seats adjoin one another, provide examples.  

In Tamworth, the winning margin of 20 votes over Labour in the district contest was smaller than the 35 votes cast for the Greens.

In the fight for the larger county division, the Conservative candidate won by 144 votes, with the Liberal Democrat challenger polling 160 votes.

What if the Green and Liberal Democrat had each stood aside, then surely Labour would have made two more gains from the Conservatives? Maybe, or maybe not.  

Correction/apology: This text was amended on 3 April 2023 to remove a sentence referring to “calls being made by Liberal Democrat Leader Sir Ed Davey for electoral pacts against the Conservatives in May and beyond”. This is wrong and we are happy to confirm that Sir Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats have not called for electoral pacts of any kind. We apologise for any distress or confusion caused.