Local factors and changing patterns of party competition continue to feature in recent by-elections, including two surprising Conservative gains from Labour.
The first of these was in Bolton’s Rumworth ward where Labour won easily only last May. Easy Labour wins are a regular occurrence in the ward, which has a majority Muslim population.
However, one of the ward’s sitting councillors, Shamim Abdullah, elected for Labour, recently defected to the Conservatives following a dispute with her former party over local schooling developments.
For the by-election, the Conservatives again selected Ayyub Patel who won just over a third of the vote in May but this time polled 55 per cent to become the first Conservative elected in the ward.
A second Conservative gain, this time in Coventry’s Sherbourne ward, saw six candidates compete in a marginal ward.
Labour’s majority was trimmed to just 35 votes last May with the swing running against the national tide, as it did in some other Coventry wards. Voters may have been reacting adversely to a long-running bin strike in the Labour-controlled city.
Established in 2004, Sherbourne elected Conservatives during Labour governments, but from 2010 voters returned only Labour councillors until 2021 when a Conservative won again.
Despite the difficulties facing her party’s national leadership, this time Conservative Jackie Gardiner won impressively, securing a 504-vote majority.
Two gains and four seats held (two of which were in Rossendale) provided a welcome respite for the Conservatives, but defeats were inevitable.
There was the now customary loss to the Greens, this time in Wealden, where there was a straight fight for the Maresfield ward once Labour opted out of the contest. The gain takes the Green tally against the Conservatives to 20 seats since the last General Election.
Labour compensated for its two losses by making gains from the Conservatives, in Newark & Sherwood, and Shropshire.
There was a 10 per cent swing in Labour’s favour in the former, which was easily enough to overturn a majority of just six votes in Edwinstone & Clipstone ward from 2019.
Another split ward – Shropshire’s Bridgnorth West and Tasley – saw Labour take the ward’s second seat with a more modest 5 per cent swing since 2021.
“Two gains and four seats held provided a welcome respite for the Conservatives”
Labour may be enjoying a record lead in recent national polls but attracting local vote switchers in the same volume is not proving so easy.
A third Labour win was achieved at the expense of the Mansfield Independents in Oak Tree ward. With local parties suspending campaigning following the Queen’s death, there was a low turnout. But Labour’s Paul Henshaw did enough to take the victory.
In Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, the local Independent fared rather better, easily retaining the Highcliffe and Walkford ward with a significantly increased majority, despite competition from the three main parties.
Labour incurred a third defeat in Ceredigion’s Lampeter ward where long-standing councillor Robert “Hag” Harris had enjoyed a large personal following and was returned unopposed last May.
His death saw four candidates contest the vacancy with Ann Morgan for Plaid Cymru (which holds both the Westminster and Senedd constituencies where the ward is located) winning by just 23 votes over the Liberal Democrats.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Bolton, Rumworth CON GAIN FROM LAB 17.3% over Lab Turnout 28.6% |
| Ceredigion, Lampeter PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM LAB 3.1% over Lib Dem Turnout 33.0% |
| Coventry, Sherbourne CON GAIN FROM LAB 18.7% over Lab Turnout 22.7% |
| Mansfield, Oak Tree LAB GAIN FROM MAN IND 16.7% over Man Ind Turnout 15.9% |
| Newark & Sherwood, Edwinstowe & Clipstone LAB GAIN FROM CON 19.6% over Con Turnout 15.7% |
| Shropshire, Bridgnorth West and Tasley LAB GAIN FROM CON 25.6% over Con Turnout 28.9% |
| Wealden, Maresfield GREEN GAIN FROM CON 22.5% over Con Turnout 35.7% |
