Low turnout ‘troubling’

The Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats all profited, but notably, Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Blackpool’s Marton ward.

This was the party’s second local by-election gain, the first coming on general election day in a Conservative seat on East Riding of Yorkshire. 

Marton’s vacancy arose after the new MP for Hyndburn, Sarah Smith, resigned as a councillor. She topped the two-member election in 2023, with Andrew Stansfield the best-placed Conservative and Reform’s sole candidate polling 9 per cent.

This time, Stansfield contested the by-election as an Independent, effectively ruling out any Conservative upset. Labour, whose by-election vote was a fraction of previous support, was defeated by Reform’s Jim O’Neil, a former solider campaigning on withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance.

Three more Labour defences arising from resignations of councillors (now MPs) all fell to Conservatives. 

The first casualty in early September was Longbeck ward in Redcar & Cleveland. The Conservative’s Stephen Crane, who had finished sixth and last standing as an Independent in 2023, did rather better under party colours.

Jessica Toale’s election to the Bournemouth West constituency led to the contest in Westminster’s West End. Labour won the ward narrowly in 2022 but lost it this time by a similar margin.

The Conservatives’ third gain was securing Beccy Cooper’s former seat on Worthing council, after she was elected MP in Worthing West. 

Marine ward’s electors voted for Cooper in 2021, ending decades of Conservative support there. Re-elected in 2024, two years after becoming leader of the council, she ousted long-standing MP Sir Peter Bottomley at the general election. 

Labour lost her council seat on a 12-point swing to the Conservatives.

Two other Labour defeats to the Conservatives came in Gedling’s Bestwood St Albans ward, where Labour lose by 58 votes, and Waverley’s succinctly named Godalming, Binscombe and Charterhouse ward, which was decided by a margin of 11 votes.

The Conservatives also gained a seat from the Greens in Thurston ward on Mid Suffolk District Council. 

The Greens took majority control on the council in 2023 and then captured the parliamentary seat, Waveney Valley, at the general election.

Thurston, which lies outside the parliamentary boundary, split between a Green and Conservative in 2019 but four years later elected two Greens with healthy majorities. This by-election saw Harry Richardson return, the defeated Conservative last time. 

After becoming a Conservative-free zone at the last general election, a tiny blue shoot has appeared in Wales after the party’s victory over Labour by 51 votes in Denbighshire’s Rhyl Trellewelyn.

Wales also witnessed Labour’s only gain, when the Independents lost Merthyr Tydfil’s Bedlinog and Trelewis ward. Defeat for the Independents and two defections from the group mean that Labour is now the largest party on the council.

But Independents saw success elsewhere, albeit in unusual circumstances in one case. 

In August 2023, Liberal Democrat John Croft captured Norfolk’s Freebridge Lynn division from the Conservatives. Following his death, the party chose not to contest the vacancy, instead giving support to Simon Ring, the Independent candidate and Deputy Leader of King’s Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council.

The Greens, too, opted out, easing his path to victory.

There was more competition in Huntingdonshire, where the Independent faced the defending Conservatives and a strong Liberal Democrat challenge to win the St Neots Eaton ward.

Both the Greens and Liberal Democrats have played their part in troubling Labour. 

The Greens made gains in Hackney and Lancaster respectively. These councils vie with one another for having the largest number of vacancies, with the latter now on 69 contests, a lead of just one.

The Green’s Liam Davis won the Stoke Newington ward after an 18-point swing against Labour while Lancaster’s Scotforth East produced a 21-point swing.

Not to be overshadowed, the Liberal Democrats seized Bromsgrove’s Sidemoor ward, where Labour normally polls above 40 per cent. 

The by-election produced a 27-point swing to the Liberal Democrats with Labour slipping to third place and just 17 per cent share.

Part of the explanation for these poor results for Labour may lie with turnout, which exceeded 30 per cent in only three cases. 

Average turnout for the September contests was just 20 per cent, the lowest September average in 41 years, and three points lower than the previous record set in 2001. 

That year also brought a record low general election turnout which 2024’s equivalent only narrowly avoided. Such widespread lack of engagement in the future is likely to impact most on Labour.

By-elections
Blackpool, Marton
REFORM UK GAIN FROM LAB
11.5% over Lab
Turnout 23.1%
Bromsgrove, Sidemoor
LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB
25.7% over Con
Turnout 19.7%
Cambridge, Romsey
LAB HELD
13.4% over Green
Turnout 20.2%  
Camden, Camden Square
LAB HELD
30.9% over Ind
Turnout 16.4%
Camden, Kentish Town South
LAB HELD
24.1% over Green
Turnout 17.9%  
Camden, Kilburn
LAB HELD
29.2% over Con
Turnout 13.1%
Cheshire East, Crewe West
LAB HELD
17.3% over Reform
Turnout 16.8%  
Cornwall, Falmouth Penwerris
LAB HELD
14.5% over Lib Dem
Turnout 15.5%  
Denbighshire, Rhyl Trellewelyn
CON GAIN FROM LAB
16.5% over Lab
Turnout 11.5%  
East Staffordshire, Stretton
CON HELD
49.5% over Lab
Turnout 19.3%  
Gateshead, Bridges
LAB HELD
6.2% over LIB DEM
Turnout 17.5%  
Gedling, Bestwood St Albans         
CON GAIN FROM LAB
7.7% over Lab        
Turnout 18.0%  
Hackney, London Fields
LAB HELD
22.4% over Green
Turnout 14.5%  
Hackney, Stoke Newington
GREEN GAIN FROM LAB
13.0% over Lab
Turnout 20.4%  
Hartlepool, Burn Valley
LAB HELD
7.6% over Reform
Turnout 17.0%  
Herefordshire, Credenhill
IND HELD
8.6% over Ind
Turnout 22.2%  
Huntingdonshire, St Neots Eatons
IND GAIN FROM CON
1.7% over Lib Dem
Turnout 18.9%  
Lancaster, Scotforth East
GREEN GAIN FROM LAB
35.4% over Lab
Turnout 30.8%  
Luton, Barnfield
LIB DEM HELD
46.1% over Lab
Turnout 19.8%  
Luton, Wigmore
LIB DEM HELD
39.4% over Ind
Turnout 19.5%  
Manchester, Baguley
LAB HELD
25.7% over Green
Turnout 11.3%  
Merthyr Tydfil, Bedlinog and Trelewis
LAB GAIN FROM IND
11.5% over Ind
Turnout 28.2%
Mid Suffolk, Thurston
CON GAIN FROM GREEN
5.2% over Green
Turnout 21.0%
Milton Keynes, Bletchley East
LAB HELD
25.1% over Con
Turnout 13.1%  
Newcastle Upon Tyne, North Jesmond
LIB DEM HELD
44.1% over Lab
Turnout 23.8%  
Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn
IND GAIN FROM LIB DEM
20.0% over Con
Turnout 18.1%
North Norfolk, North Walsham Market Cross
LIB DEM HELD
7.2% over Con
Turnout 27.6%  
Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck
CON GAIN FROM LAB
17.6% over Lab
Turnout 29.9%
Stockton-On-Tees, Fairfield
CON HELD
31.9% over Lab
Turnout 32.0%  
Swale, Priory
LIB DEM HELD
15.6% over Reform
Turnout 29.3%
Tower Hamlets, Bow East
LAB HELD
22.9% over Green
Turnout 15.2%
Waverley, Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse
CON GAIN FROM LAB
0.6% over Lib Dem
Turnout 29.4%  
Westminster, Harrow Road
LAB HELD
23.1% over Green
Turnout 14.6%  
Westminster, West End
CON GAIN FROM LAB
10.7% over Lab
Turnout 16.8%  
Worthing, Marine
CON GAIN FROM LAB
4.0% over Lab
Turnout 31.7%  
  • For additional data on these and other recent local election results, please download the Excel spreadsheet of by-election results below.
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