Recent by-elections show a trend towards higher candidate numbers: almost half the contests last year had five or more candidates on the ballot.
This year, that proportion has risen to almost 60 per cent, largely because Reform is now contesting more vacancies.
Nominations for the 1 May elections, too, show Reform leading the way with 1,630 candidates for the 1,641 seats on offer, a 99.3 per cent contestation rate.
Conservatives and Labour are not far behind, with Liberal Democrats, Greens and Independents very much in evidence.
Such fierce competition is likely to reduce the threshold of support required to win a seat and many contests could be decided by fine margins.
With the Conservatives almost certain to lose council seats and control of councils on 1 May, the media focus will be there – but Labour’s support is worthy of attention, especially in areas where many of its general election gains were recorded.
Labour lost all five of its recent local by-election defences, bringing losses since last July to 43 from 95 seats. It is the worst by-election performance for any government elected with a 100-plus parliamentary majority in its first year of office. The Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Greens and an Independent all took advantage of Labour vulnerability.
Liberal Democrats gained two Labour seats, in Lincoln and Neath Port Talbot respectively. Last July, it was Labour’s Hamish Falconer, whose father served in Tony Blair’s Cabinet, who took Lincoln’s parliamentary seat.
The vacancy in the city’s Park ward arose following the death of Cllr Sue Burke, a councillor since 2012 and twice Lincoln’s mayor. Labour then selected her son, Sean Burke-Ulyat, as its candidate to replace her, but his vote share collapsed.
Labour’s decline in Neath Port Talbot’s Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera ward was even more spectacular, a 33-point swing to the Liberal Democrats accounting for this loss.
But on the same day as these victories, the Liberal Democrats lost St Helens’ Sutton South East ward to Reform.
In 2022, Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer topped the poll, with Labour only able to claim the second seat. Cllr Spencer’s death prompted the by-election, but his personal vote did not transfer and Reform was able to make its second by-election gain in the borough, with Blackbrook ward captured from Labour at the end of last year.
The Conservatives are making a habit of taking seats off the Liberal Democrats in Three Rivers’ Abbots Langley and Bedmond ward.
Formerly, local electors had been firm in their choice, re-electing Liberal Democrats over a long period. But a reported disagreement between two of the ward’s councillors and fellow Liberal Democrats saw the resignation of Matthew Bedford and the subsequent loss of his seat in a by-election last August. His wife Sue Bedford’s resignation in January prompted a second contest, with that too gifting the Conservatives another seat.
Three defeats, two in London boroughs, highlight weaknesses among Labour’s electoral base.
Redbridge’s Mayfield ward vacancy arose following the resignation of former council leader Cllr Jas Athwal, elected for the Ilford South constituency last July.
Unusually in that election, Labour’s vote was 25-points lower, largely because of votes cast for Independent Noor Begum. She, along with others, subsequently established the Ilford Independents and it was Begum who spearheaded the campaign that overturned Labour’s 55 per cent majority in Mayfield.
The vacancy in Haringey’s St Ann’s ward arose when Tammy Hymas resigned after cuts in the borough’s budget were announced.
The Greens, who missed winning a ward seat by fewer than 100 votes in 2022, selected Ruairidh Paton as their candidate. He received public backing from Haringey’s Independent Socialists group, comprising former Labour councillors who resigned over Keir Starmer’s policies.
It is unclear whether it was his party label or this endorsement that tipped the scales in Paton’s favour, but his win was emphatic, polling almost twice as many votes as did Labour.
Labour’s troubles were also evident when it failed to retain a safe seat in Tameside’s Longdendale ward.
A group of Labour councillors were caught up in the controversy over a WhatsApp group, that included local MP Andrew Gwynne. Gwynne was sacked from his ministerial post, while the councillors had the Labour whip withdrawn.
Additionally, two Longendale ward councillors left the party, citing disaffection with Labour’s policies. One of these resulted in this vacancy.
Cue the appearance of Reform candidate Allan Hopwood, who polled almost half the votes, taking full advantage of Labour discomfort while also squeezing the Conservative and Green vote.
| By-elections | |
|---|---|
| East Devon, Exe Valley LIB DEM HELD 20.4% over Con | Turnout 28.7% | |
| Gwynedd, Teigi PLAID HELD 45.8% over Ind | Turnout 40.7% | |
| Harborough, Glen Con Held 68.5% over Lib Dem | Turnout 22.8% | |
| Haringey, St Ann’s Green gain from lab 24.6% over Lab | Turnout 33.0% | |
| Lincoln, Park LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 8.4% over Lab | Turnout 15.7% | |
| Maldon, Maldon North CON HELD 4.7% over Lib Dem | Turnout 33.2% | |
| Mole Valley, Holmwoods and Beare Green LIB DEM HELD 24.0% over Con | Turnout 18.7% | |
| Neath Port Talbot, Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB 3.8% over Plaid | Turnout 34.2% | |
| North Kesteven, Bracebridge Heath CON HELD 2.4% over Ref | Turnout 20.5% | |
| Redbridge, Mayfield ILFORD IND GAIN FROM LAB 16.4% over Lab | Turnout 24.7% | |
| St Helens, Sutton South East REF GAIN FROM LIB DEM 8.3% over Lab | Turnout 17.8% | |
| Sutton, Sutton Central LIB DEM HELD 41.6% over Con | Turnout 27.3% | |
| Swansea, Penllergaer IND HELD 50.2% over Lib Dem | Turnout 34.0% | |
| Tameside, Longdendale REF GAIN FROM LAB 21.6% over Lab | Turnout 20.1% | |
| Three Rivers, Abbots Langley and Bedmond CON GAIN FROM LIB DEM 6.4% over Lib Dem | Turnout 33.6% |
- See here the full by-election results