These latest by-elections, which include some county contests held on 4 May, largely support the general pattern of voting seen in the main local elections.
The headline, however, sees two Green gains from the Liberal Democrats. This brings the total to three such outcomes in recent months. This compares with just four gains over the Liberal Democrats and its predecessors in the previous 40 years.
An interesting feature of the small sample of county by-elections is that the average fall in Conservative support – about 11 percentage points from 2021 – is in line with the voting in the main May elections.
That is not true for either Labour or the Liberal Democrats, with the latter posting a better performance for the by-elections.
This is reflected in the results, with the Liberal Democrats capturing three Conservative seats but Labour only one.
Brentwood Conservatives will have anticipated defeat in South Weald ward, given a mere 25-vote margin of victory last time out, but probably not the 19-point swing against the party that brought defeat.
Elsewhere, Surrey Conservatives are in retreat generally and could not defend the normally safe Walton South and Oatlands division.
The chief explanation for the turnover in the Felixstowe Coastal division is Labour’s absence from the ballot paper.
In 2021, the Conservative majority was more than 30 percentage points with Liberal Democrats and Labour close together. Although the Greens fielded candidates at both elections, Labour’s withdrawal gave the Liberal Democrats a clear path to victory.
“Greens have made three gains from the Lib Dems recently”
Labour’s sole gain, Durham’s Chester-le-Street East division, was also assisted by party competition.
The Greens did not field a by-election candidate, despite winning more than a fifth of the vote in 2021. Although the Conservative share dropped only five points, this could not withstand the large fraction of Green voters probably lending support to Labour’s cause.
In North Yorkshire’s Eastfield division, Labour suffered a strange defeat.
The party’s Tony Randerson was first elected for Eastfield when it was part of Scarborough District Council, transferring to the new unitary council in May 2022 and winning three-quarters of the vote there.
Subsequently, he resigned from Labour, citing dissatisfaction with the national party’s leadership and its attitude towards left-wing rank-and-file members.
He then decided to contest his own vacancy, with no declared political allegiance, pitting himself directly against his former party. Despite the back story, or perhaps because of it, Randerson was re-elected with almost half the vote while Labour’s official nominee finished third.
And so, to those Green gains from the Liberal Democrats.
No Green candidate stood in Worcestershire’s Malvern Chase division in 2021. On the four previous occasions the seats were contested, the party received only about a 10 per cent vote share – little to suggest a by-election upset.
But, following three recounts, it proved a close-run thing with just three votes separating the winner, the appropriately named Malcolm Victory, from the Conservatives in second.
St Albans held a whole-council election in 2022 as new boundaries were implemented. In St Peter’s, the Liberal Democrats stood two candidates, the Greens one, with all three elected.
In the 2023 May elections, however, the ward saw the two parties unusually contest the single Green vacancy but Simon Glover was re-elected nevertheless. Weeks later, Juliet Voisey reprised that result and produced another surprising gain.
There is less shock-value associated with the Green gain in Stroud. Voters in this area have a long-standing relationship with the Greens, electing them in small numbers from the mid-1980s but 2021 saw 14 elected.
Although Painswick and Upton ward chose three Conservatives previously, the gap between the bottom of that slate and the best-placed Green was just 151 votes.
Despite fielding the ward’s county councillor as the party’s by-election candidate, the decline in Conservative support eased the way for the Greens’ Gary Luff to post yet another victory.
| local by-elections | |
|---|---|
| Brentwood, South Weald LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 33.7% over Con Turnout 37.3% | |
| Cambridgeshire, Arbury LAB HELD 15.1% over Con Turnout 41.8% | |
| Cambridgeshire, Soham South & Haddenham CON HELD 8.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 39.0% | |
| Camden, South Hampstead LAB HELD 4.7% over Con Turnout 30.2% | |
| Durham, Chester-Le-Street East LAB GAIN FROM CON 23.1% over Con Turnout 17.3% | |
| Essex, Basildon Laindon Park and Fryerns LAB HELD 15.5% over Con Turnout 17.9% | |
| Hampshire, Purbrook and Stakes South CON HELD 19.6% over Lib Dem Turnout 24.4% | |
| Kent, Sheppey CON HELD 0.9% over Swale Ind Turnout 21.9% | |
| Gloucestershire, Highnam CON HELD 15.7% over Lib Dem Turnout 36.6% | |
| Lincolnshire, Eagle & Hykeham West CON HELD 12.4% over Lincs Ind Turnout 23.8% | |
| Norfolk, Swaffham CON HELD 25.2% over Lab Turnout 29.0% | |
| North Yorkshire, Eastfield ND GAIN FROM LAB 20.3% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.4% | |
| Nottinghamshire, Kirkby South ASH IND HELD 20.2% over Lab Turnout 34.0% | |
| Plymouth, Efford and Lipson LAB HELD 38.1% over Con Turnout 20.2% | |
| St Albans, St Peters GREEN GAIN FROM LIB DEM 6.5% over Lib Dem Turnout 22.8% | |
| Stroud, Painswick and Upton GREEN GAIN FROM CON 13.8% over Con Turnout 42.8% | |
| Suffolk, Felixstowe Coastal LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 8.3% over Con Turnout 36.2% | |
| Suffolk, Priory Heath LAB HELD 19.4% over Con Turnout 27.1% | |
| Surrey, Walton South & Oatlands LIB DEM GAIN FROM CON 1.8% over Con Turnout 42.6% | |
| Westmorland and Furness, Old Barrow and Hindpool LAB HELD 44.9% over Con Turnout 17.2% | |
| West Oxfordshire, Ducklington CON HELD 0.9% over Lib Dem Turnout 42.2% | |
| West Sussex, East Grinstead Meridian CON HELD 24.4% over Ind Turnout 27.6% | |
| Wiltshire, Tisbury LIB DEM HELD 33.9% over Con Turnout 42.6% | |
| Worcestershire, Malvern Chase GREEN GAIN FROM LIB DEM 0.1% over Con Turnout 39.9% |
- For more details on these and other recent by-election results, please view our excel spreadsheet.
