Although there have been no postal strikes since Christmas with their potential impact on postal voting, a cold January has done little to persuade a seemingly unenthused electorate to turn out in numbers.
And as we approach the annual May contests, it is worth remembering that they will mark the first election in England where photographic identification will be required at the polling station.
When a similar system was introduced in Northern Ireland in 2003, it appeared to result in an up to 5 per cent decline in expected levels of turnout.
Although electors there eventually adapted well enough, it is likely that the English local elections will this year be marked by confusion about the new rules and some inconsistency in their application.
But not withstanding that – and the distraction to both the campaign and the ‘post-match analysis’ by the rival allure of HM King Charles III’s coronation – attention will be focused on what could well be the last full set of elections before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak goes to the country.
More than 8,000 seats in 230 councils fall vacant this year, with the Conservatives defending more than 4 in 10 of them.
Labour has some 2,100 councillors up for re-election, with the Liberal Democrats and a combination of assorted smaller parties and Independents each defending in excess of 1,200 seats.
Most of these were last fought in 2019 when both major parties lost councils and councillors.
This time however, with the Conservatives up to 25 points behind Labour in the opinion polls and having lost more than two-thirds of all the by-election seats they have defended since last September, there is scope for a sizeable swing to Labour.
An entirely plausible turnover between the Conservatives and Labour of about 800 seats would see the Conservatives surrender their position as the largest party in English local government for the first time in two decades, and with it their leadership of the LGA.
As well as the overall tally, there will be interest in how the parties are performing in different parts of the country.
The recent Redcar result, in a ward where UKIP finished a strong second in 2019, is a wake-up call for Labour that so-called ‘red wall’ voters are not yet ready to flood back to the party.
Key tests for Leader Keir Starmer will come in other parts of the Tees Valley such as Middlesbrough – where Labour lost control for the first time ever in 2019 – and Hartlepool, the scene of a 2021 Conservative parliamentary by-election triumph.
Labour will also want to show unambiguous progress in areas of the Midlands such as Dudley, Walsall, and North East Derbyshire, where councils and constituencies have fallen to the Conservatives in recent years.
If the Conservatives are to avoid the kind of pincer moment that so damaged them in the days of Tony Blair, they must also watch for the Liberal Democrats (and indeed the Greens) in more affluent parts of southern England.
Three of the cabinet’s big beasts – Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab – have seats in Surrey where the Liberal Democrats have lately shown renewed local electoral strength.
| local by-elections |
|---|
| Cannock Chase, Etching Hill and The Heath LAB GAIN FROM CON 4.6% over Con Turnout 16.2% |
| Plymouth, Moor View LAB GAIN FROM CON 20.2% over Con Turnout 26.0% |
| Plymouth, Plympton Chaddlewood GREEN GAIN FROM CON 15.7% over Con Turnout 23.8% |
| Redcar & Cleveland, Normanby CON GAIN FROM LAB 3.1% over Lab Turnout 19.3% |
| Staffordshire, Biddulph North LAB GAIN FROM CON 23.3% over Ind Turnout 19.2% |
| Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West LAB GAIN FROM CON LAB GAIN FROM IND 5.9% over Ind Turnout 16.5% |
| Stevenage, Bedwell LAB HELD 49.6% over Con Turnout 22.6% |
